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春节楼市谎言直击:合肥房价暴跌?去库存变补库存?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月21日 23:09:27
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(  春)(节)(假)(期)(刚)(过)(,有)(关)(楼)(市)(的)(两)(则)(消)(息)(就)(炸)(了)(开)(来)(,一)(是)(“合)(肥)(楼)(市)(暴)(跌)(,降)(价)(20万)(仍)(卖)(不)(掉)(”,二)(是)(“部)(分)(城)(市)(已)(从)(去)(库)(存)(转)(入)(补)(库)(存)(阶)(段)(”,乍)(一)(听)(还)(以)(为)(楼)(市)(出)(大)(事)(了)(,但)(仔)(细)(研)(究)(会)(发)(现)(,合)(肥)(暴)(跌)(只)(是)(部)(分)(投)(资)(客)(房)(子)(卖)(不)(掉)(求)(政)(府)(“救)(市)(”;而)(“补)(库)(存)(”的)(说)(法)(,放)(在)(2017年)(“三)(去)(一)(降)(一)(补)(”(去)(产)(能)(、去)(库)(存)(、去)(杠)(杆)(、降)(成)(本)(、补)(短)(板)()的)(基)(调)(下)(,更)(是)(逻)(辑)(不)(通)(。
  谎)(言)(一)(:合)(肥)(房)(价)(暴)(跌)(
  真)(相)(:投)(资)(客)(卖)(不)(掉)(房)(新)(房)(价)(格)(未)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(
  春)(节)(假)(日)(期)(间)(不)(断)(传)(出)(合)(肥)(房)(价)(暴)(跌)(的)(消)(息)(,这)(两)(天)(一)(度)(成)(为)(舆)(论)(热)(点)(。有)(合)(肥)(业)(主)(在)(合)(肥)(市)(12345政)(府)(服)(务)(直)(通)(车)(网)(站)(投)(诉)(说)(,“合)(肥)(蜀)(山)(区)(房)(价)(暴)(跌)(16%,下)(跌)(幅)(度)(是)(各)(区)(之)(最)(。而)(目)(前)(合)(肥)(二)(手)(房)(开)(启)(抛)(售)(模)(式)(,政)(府)(却)(拿)(新)(房)(价)(格)(说)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(,我)(们)(业)(主)(表)(示)(极)(其)(愤)(怒)(,百)(姓)(资)(产)(大)(幅)(缩)(水)(。”
  合)(肥)(北)(城)(业)(主)(说)(,“北)(城)(房)(价)(要)(暴)(跌)(,降)(价)(20万)(仍)(卖)(不)(掉)(。进)(入)(12月)(,北)(城)(楼)(市)(进)(入)(寒)(冬)(,看)(二)(手)(房)(的)(客)(户)(极)(少)(,投)(资)(客)(绝)(迹)(,很)(多)(房)(源)(降)(价)(20万)(依)(旧)(难)(卖)(。11月)(份)(120万)(能)(卖)(掉)(的)(房)(子)(,现)(在)(102万)(都)(卖)(不)(出)(去)(。”
  滨)(湖)(业)(主)(说)(,“二)(手)(房)(从)(11月)(开)(始)(就)(一)(直)(跌)(,进)(入)(12月)(跌)(幅)(更)(加)(扩)(大)(,某)(些)(楼)(盘)(的)(二)(手)(房)(每)(平)(降)(价)(4000元)(都)(无)(人)(问)(津)(,我)(们)(知)(道)(滨)(湖)(炒)(房)(客)(多)(,但)(像)(我)(们)(这)(些)(高)(位)(接)(盘)(的)(改)(善)(性)(刚)(需)(也)(非)(常)(多)(,面)(对)(二)(手)(房)(价)(一)(路)(狂)(跌)(,我)(们)(倍)(感)(担)(忧)(和)(愤)(怒)(,照)(这)(样)(下)(去)(,若)(明)(年)(政)(策)(还)(不)(放)(松)(,我)(家)(房)(子)(价)(值)(岂)(不)(腰)(斩)(?我)(们)(是)(改)(善)(性)(刚)(需)(,不)(是)(炒)(房)(客)(,我)(们)(不)(能)(接)(受)(房)(价)(非)(正)(常)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,请)(政)(府)(给)(我)(们)(一)(个)(说)(法)(,不)(然)(明)(年)(必)(发)(生)(民)(变)(!”
  很)(显)(然)(,说)(“暴)(跌)(”的)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(二)(手)(房)(——这)(个)(本)(来)(就)(高)(度)(市)(场)(化)(的)(市)(场)(,是)(一)(个)(“你)(愿)(买)(我)(愿)(卖)(”的)(市)(场)(,政)(府)(不)(好)(也)(不)(会)(干)(预)(二)(手)(房)(价)(格)(。这)(些)(个)(案)(中)(的)(业)(主)(呼)(喊)(“暴)(跌)(”,希)(望)(以)(此)(施)(压)(政)(府)(放)(开)(限)(购)(,和)(前)(几)(年)(“开)(发)(商)(主)(动)(降)(价)(,业)(主)(怒)(砸)(售)(楼)(处)(”的)(性)(质)(其)(实)(是)(一)(样)(的)(,没)(有)(道)(理)(可)(言)(。
  事)(实)(上)(,合)(肥)(新)(房)(价)(格)(未)(出)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(。合)(肥)(本)(地)(媒)(体)(《安)(徽)(商)(报)(》报)(道)(显)(示)(,1月)(合)(肥)(市)(区)(和)(三)(县)(共)(有)(14家)(楼)(盘)(价)(格)(出)(现)(变)(动)(,其)(中)(2家)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,8家)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(,4家)(新)(盘)(首)(开)(。在)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(的)(楼)(盘)(中)(,蜀)(山)(区)(有)(2家)(楼)(盘)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(,一)(个)(是)(长)(江)(西)(路)(沿)(线)(某)(楼)(盘)(,降)(价)(0.78元)(/平)(方)(米)(,另)(一)(个)(是)(南)(二)(环)(边)(某)(楼)(盘)(降)(价)(250元)(/平)(方)(米)(;新)(站)(区)(两)(楼)(盘)(降)(价)(均)(未)(超)(过)(0.5元)(/平)(方)(米)(;高)(新)(区)(某)(楼)(盘)(降)(价)(0.21元)(/平)(方)(米)(。
  所)(谓)(“暴)(跌)(”,仅)(仅)(是)(部)(分)(二)(手)(房)(房)(东)(降)(价)(挂)(牌)(导)(致)(,而)(这)(些)(业)(主)(大)(都)(是)(此)(前)(杀)(入)(合)(肥)(的)(投)(资)(客)(,在)(合)(肥)(出)(台)(限)(购)(令)(后)(,楼)(市)(趋)(于)(稳)(定)(,投)(资)(客)(急)(于)(抽)(身)(,所)(以)(选)(择)(降)(价)(出)(售)(房)(源)(。但)(由)(于)(限)(购)(令)(的)(出)(台)(,使)(得)(很)(多)(购)(房)(者)(开)(始)(处)(于)(观)(望)(局)(面)(,买)(涨)(不)(买)(跌)(的)(心)(理)(再)(次)(出)(现)(,导)(致)(一)(些)(二)(手)(房)(房)(东)(即)(使)(降)(价)(出)(售)(,也)(难)(以)(卖)(掉)(手)(中)(持)(有)(的)(房)(源)(。
  谎)(言)(二)(:部)(分)(城)(市)(已)(从)(去)(库)(存)(转)(入)(补)(库)(存)(阶)(段)(
  真)(相)(:一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(做)(减)(法)(不)(可)(能)(大)(规)(模)(增)(加)(土)(地)(
  近)(日)(,媒)(体)(报)(道)(显)(示)(,部)(分)(城)(市)(转)(入)(楼)(市)(补)(库)(存)(阶)(段)(。报)(道)(称)(,易)(居)(房)(地)(产)(研)(究)(院)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(2016年)(12月)(底)(,一)(、二)(、三)(线)(35个)(城)(市)(新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(库)(存)(总)(量)(分)(别)(为)(2482万)(、16753万)(和)(4099万)(平)(方)(米)(,环)(比)(增)(幅)(分)(别)(为)(-3.3%、-0.8%和)(-0.5%,同)(比)(增)(幅)(分)(别)(为)(-26.9%、-9.2%和)(-3.5%。
  其)(中)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(自)(2016年)(5月)(以)(来)(,库)(存)(即)(呈)(现)(出)(环)(比)(和)(同)(比)(双)(下)(滑)(的)(态)(势)(。总)(体)(而)(言)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(后)(续)(补)(库)(存)(的)(迫)(切)(程)(度)(较)(大)(。二)(线)(城)(市)(2016年)(12月)(新)(增)(供)(应)(量)(小)(于)(新)(增)(成)(交)(量)(,导)(致)(库)(存)(出)(现)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(态)(势)(。综)(合)(全)(年)(数)(据)(,库)(存)(也)(保)(持)(环)(比)(和)(同)(比)(下)(跌)(的)(态)(势)(。三)(线)(城)(市)(12月)(新)(增)(供)(应)(量)(同)(样)(小)(于)(新)(增)(成)(交)(量)(,使)(得)(库)(存)(出)(现)(了)(下)(降)(,去)(库)(存)(效)(果)(明)(显)(改)(善)(。
  该)(报)(告)(认)(为)(,2017年)(去)(库)(存)(战)(略)(将)(继)(续)(,尤)(其)(是)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(依)(然)(会)(强)(化)(的)(政)(策)(导)(向)(。而)(对)(于)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(尤)(其)(是)(一)(些)(热)(点)(城)(市)(来)(说)(,从)(2016年)(的)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,库)(存)(规)(模)(是)(不)(足)(的)(。所)(以)(从)(抑)(制)(房)(价)(、满)(足)(基)(本)(的)(住)(房)(需)(求)(等)(角)(度)(看)(,依)(然)(需)(要)(积)(极)(通)(过)(供)(地)(等)(方)(式)(来)(补)(充)(库)(存)(。
  值)(得)(一)(提)(的)(是)(,该)(报)(告)(分)(析)(针)(对)(的)(是)(35个)(典)(型)(城)(市)(。分)(别)(是)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(:北)(京)(、上)(海)(、广)(州)(、深)(圳)(。二)(线)(城)(市)(:长)(春)(、沈)(阳)(、大)(连)(、天)(津)(、太)(原)(、济)(南)(、青)(岛)(、南)(京)(、杭)(州)(、宁)(波)(、合)(肥)(、南)(昌)(、长)(沙)(、福)(州)(、厦)(门)(、重)(庆)(、贵)(阳)(、南)(宁)(、西)(安)(、兰)(州)(、西)(宁)(。三)(线)(城)(市)(:淮)(南)(、济)(宁)(、烟)(台)(、常)(州)(、南)(通)(、温)(州)(、九)(江)(、荆)(门)(、茂)(名)(、北)(海)(。
  对)(此)(,中)(原)(地)(产)(首)(席)(分)(析)(师)(张)(大)(伟)(持)(不)(同)(意)(见)(。他)(表)(示)(,一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(肯)(定)(是)(库)(存)(短)(缺)(,从)(房)(地)(产)(交)(易)(看)(,现)(在)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(主)(要)(做)(减)(法)(,减)(少)(投)(资)(投)(机)(需)(求)(,不)(太)(可)(能)(大)(规)(模)(增)(加)(土)(地)(,包)(括)(最)(近)(出)(台)(的)(城)(市)(土)(地)(规)(范)(,都)(是)(要)(求)(增)(加)(卫)(星)(城)(市)(发)(展)(。“所)(以)(这)(个)(补)(库)(存)(的)(逻)(辑)(是)(有)(问)(题)(的)(。”
  《全)(国)(国)(土)(规)(划)(纲)(要)((2016—2030年)()》提)(出)(,分)(类)(引)(导)(城)(镇)(化)(发)(展)(,提)(升)(优)(化)(开)(发)(区)(域)(城)(镇)(化)(质)(量)(,将)(京)(津)(冀)(、长)(江)(三)(角)(洲)(、珠)(江)(三)(角)(洲)(等)(地)(区)(建)(设)(成)(为)(具)(有)(世)(界)(影)(响)(力)(的)(城)(市)(群)(,以)(盘)(活)(存)(量)(用)(地)(为)(主)(,严)(格)(控)(制)(新)(增)(建)(设)(用)(地)(,统)(筹)(地)(上)(地)(下)(空)(间)(,引)(导)(中)(心)(城)(市)(人)(口)(向)(周)(边)(区)(域)(有)(序)(转)(移)(。
  “政)(府)(的)(预)(期)(是)(将)(需)(求)(转)(移)(到)(周)(围)(的)(卫)(星)(城)(市)(,来)(去)(库)(存)(。”张)(大)(伟)(说)(。(记)(者)(李)(方)()
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